Sunday, 2 September 2007
When two tribes go to war…possibly.
If the analogy is to stand up it should really read ‘when two tribes go to war whilst the smaller and much less significant non aligned group ums and ahhs about when it should join in and with whom’. But anyway….
As most people will know there has been a flurry of rumour and speculation about an announcement that Sauron may or may not be making on Tuesday.
Iain Dale reported that ‘No. 10 have apparently cleared their diaries on Tuesday. Naturally the speculation…is that this is because Brown will be calling a General Election’.
Likewise in a related rumour Dizzy revealed that ‘Some crazy rumours (are) flying around about Labour MPs rushing back from holidays, newspaper advert order being placed, and Number 10 driving something or other for a Tuesday deadline’
Now most of the blogs that I read and many of my visitors are a damn site better informed of political comings and goings than I am. But for the sake of throwing in a thought or two.
This could of course be part of a Brown strategy to destabilise the Opposition.
According to Saturday’s Times David Cameron has authorised a poster campaign next week as a response to fears that Gordon Brown is preparing to announce an election this autumn. I’m not sure whether this could be interpreted as a pre-emptive strike at the start of an election campaign or whether it is an attempt to narrow Nude Labia’s poll lead and thereby dissuade the cycloptic one from going to the Palace to seek a dissolution of Parliament. I can’t remember the author but I did once read a report that cast doubt on the effectiveness of such poster campaigns.
If I had one functioning eye and a particular sartorial eye for baby incontinence products and nursery toys I would probably go to the country now.
The polls are probably as favourable now as they are likely to be. The evidence seems to be that the lead is now at its high point and has begun to slip (ever so slightly).
Also a quick election would kill stone dead the nascent labour rebellion over demands for a referendum on the european constitution or what euphemism is being employed this week. The 120 will quickly fall into line if they were campaigning for their political lives.
And Sauron has been pretty lucky so far. For reasons best known to them the public seem to believe at the moment that he is some sort of change. a ‘dynamic’ new leader untainted by the complete fuck up of the last 10 years even though he has been the satrap governing pretty much all of domestic policy since that ‘glorious new dawn’ in 1997. But if he leaves it too long that dark cloud off in the distance will be revealed as the huge flock of chickens that it is, coming home to roost.
And you know what, aided and abetted by the MSM if he goes now he’s going to win and possibly win big. The public won’t mark him down for cutting and running and in one minor point of fairness as PM he does have the prerogative to go at a time that suits him best. I would! But if he does we will be stuck with this shower for another ten years. I wonder what glories we would behold during that term.
For me, the run of opinion polls prior to gordum’s take over were a little worrying. Not as worrying as they are now mind but honestly they were. They provided for the possibility of a Tory majority sub 10 or a Tory minority administration ( the libs would never play). A hung Parliament would inevitably lead to a Lib/Lab MkII with all of the resultant constitutional fun and games.
I think my preference would be for a labour majority of 1. No really I would. That’s when the fun would really start. Gordum the sane, affable, colligate man that he is would thrive under the circumstances. There would be a couple of by-elections, a vote of no confidence and a second general election within eighteen months. And then they would be gone for a generation.
But for now they could be in for a generation and you have to wonder what sort of England there will be at the end of that. No don’t do that, it will spoil the rest of your weekend.